Yesterday respected conservative editors Rich Lowry and William Kristol penned an op-ed on the National Review's website where they declared that "passing any version of the Gang of Eight's bill (on immigration reform) would be worse than passing nothing."
But according to a nationwide survey of 1,000 voters who have a history of voting in Republican primary elections, when given a choice between the current immigration system the way it is, and "passing new laws that are not perfect, but do attempt to fix the serious flaws in the current system," Republicans choose imperfect solutions over the status quo by a massive 78-14 percent margin.
The survey was conducted by Basewood Research. In their conclusion, the survey writers report:
Contrary to some perceptions, it is clear that Republican Members of Congress who support comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship, do not run afoul of the majority opinion of their primary voters. That is true in every region of the country, and in suburban and rural districts alike. It is true with Tea Party voters, social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and moderate Republicans alike as well.There are around 20% of GOP primary voters who oppose most forms of immigration reform. This minority tends to be vocal, but their level of activism should not be confused with the size of their numbers. The large majority of primary voters see a badly broken immigration system and want it fixed.
Most Republicans are willing to support a pathway to U.S. citizenship, provided that several conditions are met, including criminal background checks, learning English, paying fines, and waiting a period of years.
Of primary concern to Republicans is securing the border to prevent future illegal immigration. There is understandable skepticism that neither Congress nor the Obama Administration can be relied on to actually enforce real border security. If provisions are put in place to satisfy these concerns, then a large majority of Republican primary voters will support comprehensive reform.
The National Review piece by Kristol and Lowry is considered important because both are respected voices on the right, and for years Kristol has advocated for comprehensive immigration reform. But he now joins Lowry in raising up a hand to the conventional wisdom that the GOP must pass such a bill this year or see their electoral ambitions on a national level suffer for years to come (based on how Mitt Romney had his clock cleaned by Barack Obama in last fall's presidential election).
The two wrote:
If Republicans take the Senate and hold the House in 2014, they will be in a much better position to pass a sensible immigration bill. At the presidential level in 2016, it would be better if Republicans won more Hispanic voters than they have in the past—but it’s most important that the party perform better among working-class and younger voters concerned about economic opportunity and upward mobility. Passing this unworkable, ramshackle bill is counterproductive or irrelevant to that task.
Chuck Todd with NBC News has said that Lowry and Kristol's voices could sway House Republicans on the issue. So it depends on whom the GOP representatives want to trust and believe as negotiations begin for their own immigration bill (or bills).
The mantra from House Speaker John Boehner — and virtually every other House Republican who has spoken out on the issue — has been all about border security, despite the fact that the Senate bill added $30 billion in spending that would double the number of border patrol agents, add an additional 350 miles of secure fencing, and increase border surveillance, including by drones.
The survey says that 65 percent of Republicans support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants if it is coupled with substantially increased border security, and an additional 8 percent support a pathway to citizenship even without increased border security. Twenty-one percent oppose citizenship under all circumstances.
There has been much criticism that this bill would fail like the last comprehensive immigration bill did in 1986. Eighty-nine percent of GOP voters in this survey say that they are "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" that immigration reform will fail to actually secure the border.
But the survey also says this
However, large majorities express greater confidence that the border will be secured when they are presented with several policy options that are under consideration, including robust increases in border personnel and equipment (75%), and homeland security certification (68%).